Plot3: Icon Majority Voting (categorical random variable) Example

The 10 icon categories from DarkSky were used for prediction since it is a simple icon model.  The icons from WeatherUnderground, the NWS, and AccuWeather were converted into the icon categories from DarkSky.  The icon predictions are counted giving a total of four icons since there are four weather services.  This forms a categorical random variable.  The mode is used as majority voting for WeatherBay's icon prediction.  If there is a duplicate mode, then the icon indicating the worst weather is used.  There are animated DarkSky icons, which can be used for visualization on a website.  Initially, a Dirichlet prior distribution was planned, but it was observed that the prior would have a dominant effect on the posterior.  The likelihood function should be more predictive since it is based on recent forecasts, so a flat prior was chosen to convert the likelihood function shown into an identical posterior distribution.


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